HoldingsPM team

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

PM implied

95%

bid 94% / ask 95%

Current state

—

deferred

Volume

$1.1M

24h $60K

Closes in

46d

Wed, 01 Jul 2026 04:00:00 GMT

Δ to trigger

—

No live machine-readable trigger for this market.

Resolution Confidence (RC)

—

Composite of distance (55%), time pressure (30%) and log-volume (15%). Higher means a more legible resolution path.

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Rule

Resolves YES if on-chain evidence confirms MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin on or before Jul 1, 2026.(On-chain/Arkham fetcher pending wiring.)

Implied probability, last 30d

Δ 1h▲ 3pp

Δ 24h▲ 7pp

Δ 7d▲ 24pp

Δ 30d▲ 84pp

Reconstructed from cumulative change windows; not a tick-by-tick history.

Open on Polymarket id 824952slug microstrategy-sells-any-bitcoin-by-december-31-2026

MarketPMSourceStateΔ to triggerRCDaysΔ24hVol 24h

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